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Penguin Pattern Round 2

Quick find code: 75-76-967-61996450

MeláKazul

MeláKazul

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Termluke said:
Boom another 18 week thing attacks@ (hence why most of them were wrong) ;)

Bright side is....no deserts :)


Brighter side is .... No wilds appeared :P
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15-May-2013 06:09:13

MeláKazul

MeláKazul

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Since Amat must be lost somewhere in WE2 :P here is what Aveo predicts for Dec 18th!

1-Points
1) Observatory crate
2) Port Khazard barrel
3) Barb Outpost bush
4) Ardougne bush or Lighthouse rock
5) East Karamja bush or Rellekka rock


2-Points
1) Jatizso bush
2) Lletya toadstool
3) Jatizso rock
4) Elf Camp toadstool or Tyras Camp toadstool
5) Scorpion Pit rock or Old SC rock
(
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17-Dec-2013 00:01:42 - Last edited on 17-Dec-2013 00:05:09 by MeláKazul

MeláKazul

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Hey Amat, back in February you said you had compared weeks 154 to 157 with weeks 282 to 285 showing the strands shifting a row in the list 128 weeks apart.

You also said
AmaterasuáMi said:

I compared a few other weeks (also 128 weeks apart), and found that while it isnĺt a perfect repeat, itĺs pretty darn close.


Anyway from what I see that would make week 119 match up with week 247. My thoughts are what would happen if you put the following into an Excel file:
- across the top have one row of the first 128 weeks and another row with the second 128 weeks.
- down the first column the list of the 34 one point spawns
- going through the list putting an X, a 1 or the strand number in the location of the penguin that spawned during the first 128 weeks
- then going through the list putting a Y, a 2 or the strand number in the location of the penguin that spawned during the second 128 weeks
Note: you could use different colors if needed to tell the first 128 weeks from the second 128

If you were to do all that what would the pattern look like? Would the comparison between the 128 weeks still be close like you mentioned before or would there still be places where the pattern errors? If there are errors which weeks are they in and which strands are erroring?

Anyway this was just something I'd been wondering about and am curious as to what your thoughts on it are.
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12-May-2014 06:29:23 - Last edited on 12-May-2014 06:29:57 by MeláKazul

MeláKazul

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AmaterasuáMi said:
*Blinks*

What....? O_o


From what I can understand:

-- 1-pointers --
1) Observatory crate
2) Port Khazard barrel
3) Port Khazard barrel
4) Witchaven rock
5) Lighthouse rock

== 2-pointers ==
1) Feldip bush
2) Scorpion Pit rock
3) Dragonttoth crate
4) Port Phasmatys barrel
5) Nardah cactus
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08-Oct-2014 16:37:21

MeláKazul

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After doing a quick look at Aveo's methods for predictions it appears they seem to match, except the likely and slim chances for strands 1 and 5 are reversed. Either way it looks
like Woof is getting an early Christmas present. :(

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09-Dec-2014 22:57:22 - Last edited on 09-Dec-2014 23:02:04 by MeláKazul

MeláKazul

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WiseáJohn said:
Ama fallen asleep on Smart Corner? :)


I've no idea what happened to Amat but here's what I've go Jon:

-- 1-pointers --
1) Mage Arena bush (slim chance of Digsite rock)
2) Dorgesh-Kaan barrel
3) Goblin Village bush (slim chance of Barb Outpost bush)
4) Northwest Ardy bush
5) Mage Arena bush

== 2-pointers ==
1) Ape Atoll barrel (slim chance of Ape Atoll bush)
2) Outside Sophenam cactus
3) Old Stealing Creation rock (slim chance of Scorpion Pit rock)
4) Castle wars (teak tree) rock
5) Lunar rock
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27-Jan-2015 22:06:06

MeláKazul

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Um is it my imagination or does it look like some of the 1 pointers got missed/lost? :|
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05-Apr-2016 18:25:02 - Last edited on 05-Apr-2016 18:25:54 by MeláKazul

MeláKazul

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Grabs a green crayon and colours in what seems to be missing (not sure if theae are what amat had)


AmaterasuáMi said:
For April 6th, I'm going to guess....

-- 1-pointers --
1) Rellekka rock (slim chance of
East Karamja bush
)
2)
Brimhaven bush
(slim chance of Central Karamja bush)
3) McGrubor's Wood bush (slim chance of
witchaven rock
)
4)
gnome maze bush
(slim chance of Castle Wars bush)
5) Draynor crate

== 2-pointers ==
1) Elf Camp toadstool (slim chance of Tyras Camp/Catapult toadstool)
2) Jatizso bush (slim chance of Neitiznot rock)
3) N-of-Sophanem cactus (slim chance of Sophanem cactus)
4) Jatizso rock (slim chance of Miscellania bush)
5) Piscatoris crate


For the Polar Bear: Rellekka, Falador or Musa are most likely, but any of the others are also possible.
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05-Apr-2016 23:53:35

MeláKazul

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I hope you don't mind me posting what I think we might get Amat.

v445 - March 1st

1-Point Penguins
1) Feldip rock
2) Barb Outpost bush or Wizard bush
3) Lighthouse rock
4) East Karamja bush or Central Karamja bush
5) Musa crate or Brimhaven bush

2-Point-Penguins
1) Jatz bush or Neitz rock
2) Jatz rock or Neitz rock
3) Lava Maze rock or Mort toadstool
4) Jiggig rock or Outside Soph cactus
5) Canifis crate or Canifis bush

I'm using Aveo's method for predicting these and am using the new 2 pointers that we got yesterday. I am assuming the pattern rules haven't changed.
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28-Feb-2017 17:32:35

MeláKazul

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Aveo7 said:
AmaterasuáMi said:
I'm thinking the theory that the 2-pt list has been re-ordered might be correct.


I agree and I'll take it one step further. I doubt the pattern has changed significantly, because the 1pts haven't changed and I doubt they took the time to write and test new code for the 2pt penguins alone. Not on a TAPP project when that time could be put into polishing the quest.

I think what we're seeing is a result of list shuffling and/or a new spawn point being added.


So would it be safe to assume that the new 2 pointers we got when the quest was added are the same values but just with the list reshuffled.

Pre-update _____________________ Post-update
1) Ape bush (value 5) ----------> Lava Maze (prevoius value 10 now value of 5)
2) Outside Soph (value 30) ----> Mort bush (previous value 11 now value of 30)
3) Lunar (value 8) -------------> Feldip bush (previous value 17 now value of 8)
4) Piscatoris (value 33) --------> Elf rock (previous value 18 now value of 33)
5) Jatz bush (value 7) ---------> Tyras toadstool ( previous value 15 now value of 7)

So if this is the case we'd just have to determine where each spawn is in the new list right?
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03-Mar-2017 02:29:48 - Last edited on 03-Mar-2017 02:49:56 by MeláKazul

MeláKazul

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Well some theories I've heard/have:
- The 2 pointers were given a force restart and are currently on a different week/cycle from the one pointers.
- That the 2 pointers now work using the same movement rules as the 1 pointers.
- That by adding a 6th 2 pointer into the mix it's messed up/broken the math/way that 2 pointers were normally calculated.
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07-Mar-2017 01:14:23

MeláKazul

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Aveo7 said:
Lava Maze is copying East Karamja
Elf Catapult is copying Lumbridge
Morty bush is copying Brimhaven bush


The 2-point penguins are copying the 1-point penguins.


AmaterasuáMi said:
Okay, I think I've caught up a bit now.

A couple of notes first:
- When a 2-pt penguin appears in 2 consecutive weeks, it tends to be in Strand 1 and then Strand 5
- If Aveo is right about the chunks, then there's a good chance that the strands for Mos and Desert were 1 and 3 (respectively).


So that means

1) Ape Atoll bush.......>....Lava Maze......>....Mos Le'Harmless
2) N-of-Sophanem...>....Mort bush......>....
Neitz or Canifis

3) Lunar Isle rock......>....Feldip..............>....N-of-Nardah
4) Piscatoris crate.....>....Elf rock...........>....
Neitz or Canifis

5) Jatizso bush..........>....Tyras................>....Lava Maze

F) ####.....................>....Miscellania.....>....Scorpion Pit


So that means

1) Ape Atoll bush.......>....Lava Maze.....>...Mos Le'Harmless.......>....Lava Maze
2) N-of-Sophanem...>....Mort bush.....>...
Neitz or Canifis
..........>....Mort bush
3) Lunar Isle rock......>....Feldip.............>...N-of-Nardah..............>....Neitz bush
4) Piscatoris crate.....>....Elf rock..........>...
Neitz or Canifis
..........>....Old SC
5) Jatizso bush..........>....Tyras...............>...Lava Maze..................>....Tyras

F) ####.....................>....Miscellania....>...Scorpion Pit................>....Port Phasmatys

Interesting that strands 1, 2 & 5 are the same as in v444 post quest update while strands 3,4 & F all have moved 7 places in the same direction since that week.
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08-Mar-2017 05:41:47 - Last edited on 08-Mar-2017 06:15:00 by MeláKazul

MeláKazul

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Aveo7 said:
MeláKazul said:


So that means

1) Ape Atoll bush.......>....Lava Maze.....>...Mos Le'Harmless.......>....Lava Maze
2) N-of-Sophanem...>....Mort bush.....>...
Neitz or Canifis
..........>....Mort bush
3) Lunar Isle rock......>....Feldip.............>...N-of-Nardah..............>....Neitz bush
4) Piscatoris crate.....>....Elf rock..........>...
Neitz or Canifis
..........>....Old SC
5) Jatizso bush..........>....Tyras...............>...Lava Maze..................>....Tyras




Not quite. If the 2-points are doing the same thing as the 1-points, I'd expect:

1) Ape Atoll bush.......>....Lava Maze.....>...???...................>....Lava Maze
2) N-of-Sophanem...>....Mort bush.....>...???....................>....Mort bush
3) Lunar Isle rock......>....Feldip.............>...???....................>....???
4) Piscatoris crate.....>....Elf rock..........>...
Lava Maze
......>....???
5) Jatizso bush..........>....Tyras...............>...???...................>....Tyras



Because
"when a 2-pt penguin appears in 2 consecutive weeks, it tends to be in Strand 1 and then Strand 5"
doesn't apply if they're behaving like the 1-pts.


Ok that makes sense. I figured neitz as strand 3 & old SC as strand 5 made sense as they follow 1 pointer movements.

Also here's something I found. If you look at the predictions for the 1 pointer and the 2 pointers for strand 4 this week you get the following:

1 pointer - 4) Gnome Maze bush or Castle Wars bush
2 pointer - 4) Ape barrel or Tyras Catapult toadstool

Normally they both take the same option as each other but in this case they took the opposite ones. Could it be that the 1 pointers and 2 pointers no longer pair? O_o
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08-Mar-2017 07:22:05 - Last edited on 08-Mar-2017 07:37:08 by MeláKazul

MeláKazul

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AmaterasuáMi said:
....and all the old pairs are listed in one of my posts. On page 143....


So I was looking at your posts on page 143 about making halfway lists and tried it with the current 2 point list on page 1 of this thread starting at the end with Piscatoris and got this

1) Piscatoris (cr)
2) Feldip (bu)
3) Castle Wars (ro)
4) Elf Limestone (ro)
5) Mort Myre (ro)
6) SW-of-KBD (ro)
7) Nardah (ca)
8) Dragontooth (cr)
9) Mos Le'Harmless (ba)
10) Ape Atoll (ba)
11) Ape Atoll (bu)
12) Miscellania (bu)
13) Jatizso (ro)
14) Neitiznot (ro)
15) Jatizso (bu)
16) Neitiznot (bu)
17) Lunar Isle (ro)
18) Old SC (ro)
19) Scorpion Pit (ro)
20) North KBD (ro)
21) Lava Maze (ro)
22) Mort Myre (to)
23) Mort Myre (bu)
24) Canifis (bu)
25) Canifis (cr)
26) Port Phasmatys (ba)
27) Jiggig (ro)
28) Outside-Soph (ca)
29) Sophanem (ca)
30) Elf Camp (to)
31) Tyras Camp (to)
32) Lletya (to)
33) Keldagrim (ro)
34) New spawn

Since Keldagrim was a new spawn for pattern 2 I figured any new spawns added would be inserted after Keldagrim.
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10-Mar-2017 11:51:56

MeláKazul

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From here I looked at the match ups that we knew from what we have gotten so far in pairs starting at Tyras catapult.

13) Lumbridge (to) - Tyras Camp (to)
14) Digsite (ro) - Feldip (bu)
15) Wizard's Tower (bu) - Nardah (ca)

From there I tried seeing how far away Tyras was from Feldip bush on the halfway list. I noticed I only had to count down the list 5 spots to reach it.

31) Tyras Camp (to)
32) Lletya (to)
33) Keldagrim (ro)
34) New spawn
1) Piscatoris (cr)
2) Feldip (bu)

And from there it was down another 5 spots to Nardah cactus.

3) Castle Wars (ro)
4) Elf Limestone (ro)
5) Mort Myre (ro)
6) SW-of-KBD (ro)
7) Nardah (ca)
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10-Mar-2017 11:59:14

MeláKazul

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By counting down 5 spots and inserting them into a new list I came up with this result of pairing:

1) Goblin Village (bu) - Mort Myre (ro)
2) Ice Mountain (ro) - Ape Atoll (ba)
3) McGrubbors (bu) - Jatizso (bu)
4) Rellekka (ro) - North KBD (ro)
5) Entrana (ba) - Canifis (cr)
6) Draynor (cr) - Elf Camp (to)
7) Mage Arena (bu) - Piscatoris (cr)
8) Barb Outpost (bu) - SW-of-KBD (ro)
9) Observatory (cr) - Ape Atoll (bu)
10) Witchaven (ro) - Neitiznot (bu)
11) East Karamja (bu) - Lava Maze (ro)
12) White Wolf (ro) - Port Phasmatys (ba)
13) Lumbridge (to) - Tyras Camp (to)
14) Digsite (ro) - Feldip (bu)
15) Wizard's Tower (bu) - Nardah (ca)
16) Eagles Peak (bu) - Miscellania (bu)
17) Castle Wars (bu) - Lunar Isle (ro)
18) Karamja (bu) - Mort Myre (to)
19) Burthorpe (ro) - Jiggig (ro)
20) Smoky Well (ca) - Lletya (to)
21) Zanaris (to) - Castle Wars (ro)
22) Ardougne (bu) - Dragontooth (cr)
23) Port Khazard (ba) - Jatizso (ro)
24) Gnome Maze (bu) - Old SC (ro)
25) Brimhaven (bu) - Mort Myre (bu)
26) Mudskipper (bu) - Outside-Soph (ca)
27) KQ Lair (ca) - Keldagrim (ro)
28) Dorgesh-Kaan (ba) - Elf Limestone (ro)
29) Lighthouse (ro) - Mos Le'Harmless (ba)
30) Feldip (ro) - Neitiznot (ro)
31) Gnome Stronghold (bu) - Scorpion Pit (ro)
32) Musa Point (cr) - Canifis (bu)
33) Sawmill (cr) - Sophanem (ca)
34) Al Kharid (ca) - new spawn
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10-Mar-2017 12:06:53

MeláKazul

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Which would in theory would make March 15th become

1) Ape Atoll bush.......>...Lava Maze...>...
Neitz rock
......>...Lava Maze -> Outside soph
2) N-of-Sophanem...>...Mort bush...>...Nardah............>...Mort bush -> SW KBD
3) Lunar Isle rock......>...Feldip...........>...Mos Le............>...
Neitz bush
-> Mos Le'Harmless
4) Piscatoris crate.....>...Elf rock........>...Lava Maze......>...
Low Wildy
-> Piscatoris
5) Jatizso bush..........>...Tyras.............>...
Canifis bush
...>...Tyras -> Elf rock
(
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10-Mar-2017 12:17:11

MeláKazul

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AmaterasuáMi said:
Ahh....O_o

I actually tried converting the 2-pts exactly the same way I had the 1-pt, but I think I messed it up.
Probably because I didn't read that old post properly.



Nicely done on managing to keep up.


Thanks lol :D

Also from looking at the Freezer peng my guess for it for next week would be Low Wildy rock, Keldagrim rock, Mos Le'Harmless barrel, Scorpion Pit rock, the new 34th spawn, Mort rock, Ape barrel, North KBD rock or SW KBD rock.
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10-Mar-2017 12:29:12 - Last edited on 10-Mar-2017 22:27:41 by MeláKazul

MeláKazul

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Looks like we were right on how the list got reordered based on what we got this week.

Now to try and figure out what our new 2 ptr is doing. So far it's gone:

Miscellania -> Scorp Pit -> Port Phasmatys -> Scorp Pit

From watching it's movements it looks like it is following strand 3's movements only 2 rows down the reworked list.

So my guesses for it for next week would be
F) Miscellania bush, Jatz rock, Tyras toadstool or Lletya toadstool
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15-Mar-2017 04:40:18

MeláKazul

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I wouldn't have been able to figure out the list without help from Aveo and your notes on page 143 Amat. :)

Here's what I see for v449 (March 29th) - bolded options are more likely

1-Point Penguins
1) KQ Lair cactus or Al Kharid cactus
2) White Wolf rock
3) Mudskipper bush or Sawmill crate
4) Wizards' Tower bush
5) Lighthouse rock

2-Point-Penguins
1) Keldagrim rock or Unknown Penguin Spy
2) Port Phasmatys barrel
3) Outside Sophanem cactus or Inside Sophanem cactus
4) Nardah cactus
5) Mos Le'Harmless barrel
F
) Elf Limestone rock or Mort Myre rock

As much as I want to see the new 2 point spawn I don't think we'll be getting it this week.
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28-Mar-2017 09:14:28 - Last edited on 28-Mar-2017 09:15:00 by MeláKazul

MeláKazul

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Termluke said:
27) KQ Lair (ca) - Tardis (ca)
...
34) Al Kharid (ca) - Keldagrim (ro)

Is prolly what happened tbh


Yeah that is what it looks like Term. I'm not sure how that happened. O_o
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29-Mar-2017 04:34:52

MeláKazul

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AmaterasuáMi said:
It seems to be the most likely.


I can agree with that. I have mort rock with a slim chance of elf rock for my list of possibilities.
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09-May-2017 22:33:32

MeláKazul

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MagicáAngel said:
Ok, let's see.

I prefer the Feldip rock, and a Tardis Freezer.

That will help Chuck's clues.


From what I can see Magic, Feldip rock/Neitiznot rock and Mort toadstool are most likely.
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16-May-2017 20:36:31

MeláKazul

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For freezer I'm seeing Neitiznot rock with a slim chance of Jatizso rock
or
Desert Tardis cactus with a slim chance of Lletya toadstool
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28-Nov-2017 15:15:48

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