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~Inflation Rate OSRS Economy~

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sTReTCh1028

sTReTCh1028

Posts: 17,799Opal Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
There has been much talk about the state of the RS economy recently, with cries that too much gp is pouring into the game. To test this, I decided to find the inflation rate. To do this, I used three measures: The Commonly Traded Inflation Rate (CTIR), the Combat Consumables Inflation Rate (CCIR), and the Skilling Consumables Inflation Rate (SCIR), and I later added the Combat Weapons/Armor Inflation Rate (CWIR). In April 2019, I also introduced the CTI as an overall economic measure. A score of "100" is baseline. Less than 100 means the economy is in a downturn (deflation); more than 100 means an upturn (inflation).


Common Trades Index
October 2019 CTI: 86.45
September 2019 CTI: 82.27
August 2019 CTI: 81.96
July 2019 CTI: 86.45
June 2019 CTI: 85.13
May 2019 CTI: 87.07
April 2019 CTI: 87.44






October 2019
CTIR: -5.87%
CCIR: -4.38%
SCIR: -1.73%
CWIR: -10.87%

September 2019
CTIR: -8.90%
CCIR: -8.36%
SCIR: -1.16%
CWIR: -10.97%

August 2019
CTIR: -9.58%
CCIR: -3.93%
SCIR: -2.59%
CWIR: -13.19%

July 2019
CTIR: -10.63%
CCIR: -2.09%
SCIR: -14.56%
CWIR: -12.80%

June 2019
CTIR: -14.44%
CCIR: -14.94%
SCIR: -23.60%
CWIR: -10.41%

May 2019
CTIR: -12.82%
CCIR: -11.33%
SCIR: -27.69%
CWIR: -10.89%

April 2019
CTIR: -13.59%
CCIR: -3.63%
SCIR: -19.76%
CWIR: -5.32%

March 2019
CTIR: -12.58%
CCIR: -3.77%
SCIR: -15.43%
CWIR: -7.02%

February 2019
CTIR: -6.47%
CCIR: -16.17%
SCIR: -5.21%
CWIR: -18.37%

January 2019
CTIR: -5.72%
CCIR: -4.08%
SCIR: -2.44%
CWIR: -15.69%

December 2018
CTIR: -0.66%
CCIR: -0.10%
SCIR: -1.92%
CWIR: -9.90%

November 2018
CTIR: -1.13%
CCIR: -0.15%
SCIR: -1.55%
CWIR: -8.89%

October 2018
CTIR: -0.91%
CCIR: -0.16%
SCIR: -1.61%










Thoughts? Comments? Discussion? Criticsm? Post away, happy to hear your thoughts.

Want to check it for yourself? The links to the spreadsheets are BELOW on the page!
sTReTCh1028
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The art of simplicity is a puzzle of complexity

22-Oct-2018 22:46:37 - Last edited on 06-Oct-2019 20:36:57 by sTReTCh1028

artemischild
Jun Member 2019

artemischild

Posts: 1,285Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
This is hilarious. You talk about the problem being that too many gps are added to the game, then you say "inflation isn't happening". Putting that kind of gps into the game will cause things to crash, because the value of the gps is not worth what it used to be. The difference will be things like bonds, which went from 4.4 to 3 million in a matters of days because jagex gave away free months membership, then skyrocketed back to 4 in a matter of days. It has not stabilized so its highly likely to go above 4.4 mil this time.

Its things like bonds that are not controlled by alch prices that are going to be affected by deflation and inflation.

23-Oct-2018 00:11:34 - Last edited on 23-Oct-2018 00:12:24 by artemischild

sTReTCh1028

sTReTCh1028

Posts: 17,799Opal Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
My method: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1T3cX4CsVG_F02g3r0foC2j5NstHt15bHmYL3XZhoZqE/edit?usp=sharing


Want to keep up to date with it yourself? Or just want to view the sheet? Here's the link to it:

CTIR:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MQzoMydEkR2cgy2vPbWi_xiu0Os5azngzusvucEBaBA/edit?usp=sharing

CCIR:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ql8bPoYSEJ9WqpN_qTYx7xyscMhnq6puYb8fd-2j2Qc/edit?usp=sharing

SCIR:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jfT82SNcgnVToDD7AxH7b9jbMWoCtObkGdwsj7IhkIw/edit?usp=sharing

CWIR:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1t08bpqN0ThEg5FLT6nl80tqpgrpPtwJTIDeMFW2N5w8/edit?usp=sharing
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NOTE: Google Sheets has a love-hate relationship with its ImportXml function, which is what I use to do this. Sometimes, it doesn't work as intended, so it will show errors instead of the calculations. If this is the case, just try again later.
sTReTCh1028
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The art of simplicity is a puzzle of complexity

23-Oct-2018 00:58:53 - Last edited on 20-Apr-2019 21:18:42 by sTReTCh1028

Boabies
Dec Member 2018

Boabies

Posts: 3,332Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
artemischild said:
This is hilarious. You talk about the problem being that too many gps are added to the game, then you say "inflation isn't happening". Putting that kind of gps into the game will cause things to crash, because the value of the gps is not worth what it used to be. The difference will be things like bonds, which went from 4.4 to 3 million in a matters of days because jagex gave away free months membership, then skyrocketed back to 4 in a matter of days. It has not stabilized so its highly likely to go above 4.4 mil this time.

Its things like bonds that are not controlled by alch prices that are going to be affected by deflation and inflation.


Bonds are determined by supply and demand. Wtf are you talking about?
I haven't clicked on any phishing links and as a result, I haven't gotten hacked. Git gud nubnubs.

23-Oct-2018 01:31:36

artemischild
Jun Member 2019

artemischild

Posts: 1,285Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
of course they are not inflating the value of gps, they are deflating the value of gps. Anyone with any economic understanding at all knows this.

What destroyed the prices of items was the introduction of revs a year ago, that dumped huge amounts of resources on the market. You are taking the time AFTER the damage was done and saying "see no damage".

Bonds are determine by the supply of gps.

23-Oct-2018 04:41:34 - Last edited on 23-Oct-2018 04:42:21 by artemischild

NonMax Jake

NonMax Jake

Posts: 7,037Rune Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Artemis, bond prices are determined by a lot of things. Supply of bonds, demand of bonds, supply of gp in the game, prices of gold on non-Jagex websites, membership prices, price of bonds in terms of IRL cash etc.

I already proved you wrong in other threads and showed that the growth in bond prices is in line with prior trends we've seen, which was until the new membership prices which caused the price to increase moreso. Increasing the cost of purchasing bonds will undeniably increase the price of bonds in terms of ingame currency. Anyone with any knowledge of logic knows this.

Stop sprouting your anti-pker hate and try to contribute to the discussion.

@OP, great thread. Are you able to plot this out as a time series, by any chance?

<Players against animal abuse>

23-Oct-2018 05:27:39

Boabies
Dec Member 2018

Boabies

Posts: 3,332Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
artemischild said:
of course they are not inflating the value of gps, they are deflating the value of gps. Anyone with any economic understanding at all knows this.

What destroyed the prices of items was the introduction of revs a year ago, that dumped huge amounts of resources on the market. You are taking the time AFTER the damage was done and saying "see no damage".

Bonds are determine by the supply of gps.


Anyone with economic sense knows that all items are affected by inflation, supply, and demand. I'm guessing they don't have any knowledge requirements on economics to enter the military?
I haven't clicked on any phishing links and as a result, I haven't gotten hacked. Git gud nubnubs.

23-Oct-2018 05:38:28

NonMax Jake

NonMax Jake

Posts: 7,037Rune Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
This thread is really great. Just thought I'd say that again. It's really making me question whether we do need something to retard the flow of gp into the game.
<Players against animal abuse>

23-Oct-2018 05:57:57

Boabies
Dec Member 2018

Boabies

Posts: 3,332Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
NonMax Jake said:
This thread is really great. Just thought I'd say that again. It's really making me question whether we do need something to retard the flow of gp into the game.


GE tax and harsher staking tax plz. The inflation rate is too insane. We can't rely on small scale taxes anymore.
I haven't clicked on any phishing links and as a result, I haven't gotten hacked. Git gud nubnubs.

23-Oct-2018 06:05:56

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