Forums

Dream of 200M

Quick find code: 366-367-639-65968139

of 7
UrekMazino
Nov Gold Premier Club Member 2015

UrekMazino

Posts: 3,960Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Dilbert2001 said:
So? The chance of wining 200 mil from TH is still extremely small. Not many players have won the 200 mil prize from TH even once but a lot have won >200 mil worth of prizes from Telos.

Telos also drop a lot of other tradeable items among gp, but most TH prizes are hardly tradeable or have extremely low gp values.

I don't get which part of my comment so hard to understand for you? Nobody is talking about the chances of getting the desirable reward here, only that your analogy is incorrect. Don't ask why its incorrect, just go back and read my older comments, I believe I've already explained more than once.
l||l Modest Skillers T7 Citadel | Skilling clan recruiting players. l||l
Cwar United for CW games/Ardy task/Trim req.
120 Summoning Familiar ideas.

15-Dec-2018 15:42:52

Dilbert2001
Jun Gold Premier Club Member 2006

Dilbert2001

Posts: 6,535Rune Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Someone from this Reddit thread claimed he won multiple times of 200 mil gp from TH on a Rainbow promotion:

https://www.reddit.com/r/runescape/comments/65ibhx/rainbow_end_200m_x7_discussion/

https://gyazo.com/61b032e09d8cbf88fa071e7f7cf79d6d I got this last rainbow promo in 200 keys. Completely rng obv, but so lucky.

So yes, with to OP's question on whether Rainbow Multipliers work on the 200 mil gp prize.

15-Dec-2018 17:15:37

UrekMazino
Nov Gold Premier Club Member 2015

UrekMazino

Posts: 3,960Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Dilbert2001 said:
Even if combat pet drop rate was 1 in 1000, 2 combat pets all dropped in a single kill would be 1 in (1000 x 1000) = 1 in 1 million, much lower than 1/400k.

I think you need to kill many many thousands, if not over 9000 mobs usually to get 1 combat pet, not just 1000 kills. Your 1/400k chance is extremely unlikely.

Oh man, looking back at the older posts, completely forgotten to address this.

I've already told you that you can use the pet drop formulae to calculated the chances. Just because your anecdotes tell you that you didn't get a pet after killing 9000 mobs doesn't mean anything when the drop rates are already revealed.
l||l Modest Skillers T7 Citadel | Skilling clan recruiting players. l||l
Cwar United for CW games/Ardy task/Trim req.
120 Summoning Familiar ideas.

16-Dec-2018 02:44:05

Dilbert2001
Jun Gold Premier Club Member 2006

Dilbert2001

Posts: 6,535Rune Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Assuming it is equally likely to get a 1x up to 5x chest on a Double Dragon Chest promotion, the normal odds spells a 3x chest and a 6x prize because of the "Double".

Suppose the chance of getting a 200 mil prize is 1 in 100,000. When you use your key on a Double Dragon Chest promotion, your chance of obtaining an average of 200 mil gp with a key is 16,667.

It is still very low chance but it is not like the 1 in millions in getting lucky x lucky in obtaining a double pet drops in one kill... and let's not forget the combat pets, the base chance is divided by the number of skills being trained. It means when you are training melee with all attack, strength and defense checked, you only have 1/3 of a chance of the base chance of getting a defense pet.

16-Dec-2018 20:14:54

UrekMazino
Nov Gold Premier Club Member 2015

UrekMazino

Posts: 3,960Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Dilbert2001 said:
Assuming it is equally likely to get a 1x up to 5x chest on a Double Dragon Chest promotion, the normal odds spells a 3x chest and a 6x prize because of the "Double".

Suppose the chance of getting a 200 mil prize is 1 in 100,000. When you use your key on a Double Dragon Chest promotion, your chance of obtaining an average of 200 mil gp with a key is 16,667.

It is still very low chance but it is not like the 1 in millions in getting lucky x lucky in obtaining a double pet drops in one kill... and let's not forget the combat pets, the base chance is divided by the number of skills being trained. It means when you are training melee with all attack, strength and defense checked, you only have 1/3 of a chance of the base chance of getting a defense pet.

Hey, don't change the subject, I'm talking about your comment that getting 2 pets simultaneously from Nex is 1 in 100m or 1 in 1bil is way off the mark. Not whether winning 200m from TH is rarer than double pet drop.

I know its really hard for you do this, but when you can't defend your statement, you should just concede instead of moving the goal post or change the subject because it makes you look scummy when you do that.
l||l Modest Skillers T7 Citadel | Skilling clan recruiting players. l||l
Cwar United for CW games/Ardy task/Trim req.
120 Summoning Familiar ideas.

17-Dec-2018 12:35:54

Dilbert2001
Jun Gold Premier Club Member 2006

Dilbert2001

Posts: 6,535Rune Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
UrekMazino said:
Dilbert2001 said:
Assuming it is equally likely to get a 1x up to 5x chest on a Double Dragon Chest promotion, the normal odds spells a 3x chest and a 6x prize because of the "Double".

Suppose the chance of getting a 200 mil prize is 1 in 100,000. When you use your key on a Double Dragon Chest promotion, your chance of obtaining an average of 200 mil gp with a key is 16,667.

It is still very low chance but it is not like the 1 in millions in getting lucky x lucky in obtaining a double pet drops in one kill... and let's not forget the combat pets, the base chance is divided by the number of skills being trained. It means when you are training melee with all attack, strength and defense checked, you only have 1/3 of a chance of the base chance of getting a defense pet.

Hey, don't change the subject, I'm talking about your comment that getting 2 pets simultaneously from Nex is 1 in 100m or 1 in 1bil is way off the mark. Not whether winning 200m from TH is rarer than double pet drop.

I know its really hard for you do this, but when you can't defend your statement, you should just concede instead of moving the goal post or change the subject because it makes you look scummy when you do that.


Look at the first post of this thread, and then what forum this is, and tell yourself what's the subject. It is about wining the 200 mil gp prize in TH. Whatever comments on odds are just FYI information, not the main discussion of this subject. Please don't veer further and further away from the actual subject.

Regardless, although the odds of wining a 200 mil gp prize from TH is low, even wining 5x to 10x of 200 mil gp TH prize is still far better than odds of being lucky x lucky in other non-TH, non-MTX based content.

17-Dec-2018 16:03:33

UnwieldyPast
Mar Gold Premier Club Member 2018

UnwieldyPast

Posts: 313Silver Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Dilbert2001 said:
UrekMazino said:
Dilbert2001 said:
I never said TH and Telos rewards are the same but obviously the odds of winning 200 mil from either TH or Telos is extremely low and can't be expected from just "pushing the space bar". :D


You were the one who made the comparison.
Dilbert2001 said:
When a player buys membership with real money can kills a Telos for a >200 mil drop, no real money is paid to Jagex other than from that player's own wallet. No money is chaning hands between players. That player simply pays Jagex and "wins" more (in term of virtual items) than the free players. How does this show members are not directly more pay to win than free players who can get TH gp prizes but not membership drop?


That's my post to UnwieldyPast's Post 4 on Page 3, not yours. He made the pay-to-win claim and I just told him membership is pay-to-win too.

"You can't just hold the space bar and expect to win 200 mil gp" was and is my response to your post.

Please get the points strict first before you jump into other's people discussions.


FYI, my point was *not* that it was "pay-to-win". My point was that spawning 200m+ in raw cash to the game economy adds to inflation, if only ever so slightly. Entirely different.

18-Dec-2018 21:02:18 - Last edited on 18-Dec-2018 21:09:01 by UnwieldyPast

Dilbert2001
Jun Gold Premier Club Member 2006

Dilbert2001

Posts: 6,535Rune Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
UnwieldyPast said:
Dilbert2001 said:
UrekMazino said:
Dilbert2001 said:
I never said TH and Telos rewards are the same but obviously the odds of winning 200 mil from either TH or Telos is extremely low and can't be expected from just "pushing the space bar". :D


You were the one who made the comparison.
Dilbert2001 said:
When a player buys membership with real money can kills a Telos for a >200 mil drop, no real money is paid to Jagex other than from that player's own wallet. No money is chaning hands between players. That player simply pays Jagex and "wins" more (in term of virtual items) than the free players. How does this show members are not directly more pay to win than free players who can get TH gp prizes but not membership drop?


That's my post to UnwieldyPast's Post 4 on Page 3, not yours. He made the pay-to-win claim and I just told him membership is pay-to-win too.

"You can't just hold the space bar and expect to win 200 mil gp" was and is my response to your post.

Please get the points strict first before you jump into other's people discussions.


FYI, my point was *not* that it was "pay-to-win". My point was that spawning 200m+ in raw cash to the game economy adds to inflation, if only ever so slightly. Entirely different.


RS3 is and has been in deflation for a long time so no need to worry about "raw cash" added to the game. When players don't spend their gp on tradeable items, those tradeable items won't go up in prices no matter how much gp is created. Personally, I have over 17 billion gp on just one account and it just keeps adding up. It certainly doesn't cause inflation because I don't have anything to spend it on.

18-Dec-2018 21:54:10

UrekMazino
Nov Gold Premier Club Member 2015

UrekMazino

Posts: 3,960Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Dilbert2001 said:
Look at the first post of this thread, and then what forum this is, and tell yourself what's the subject. It is about wining the 200 mil gp prize in TH. Whatever comments on odds are just FYI information, not the main discussion of this subject. Please don't veer further and further away from the actual subject.

Regardless, although the odds of wining a 200 mil gp prize from TH is low, even wining 5x to 10x of 200 mil gp TH prize is still far better than odds of being lucky x lucky in other non-TH, non-MTX based content.

1) It doesn't matter who you were talking. I or anyone is free to point out any mistake you make.

2) I'm not trying to veer form the original subject, I'm just correcting one of your statement.

3) You're the one veering from the subject by trying to change the subject of debate. No one is talking about the chances of winning 200m and its rarity does not in any way affect the appropriateness of your comparison. So stop bringing it up, I've already told you why its unfair, you never debunked my arguments, you've only attempted changed the subject in order to win an argument that I am not arguing for.
Dilbert2001 said:
RS3 is and has been in deflation for a long time so no need to worry about "raw cash" added to the game. When players don't spend their gp on tradeable items, those tradeable items won't go up in prices no matter how much gp is created. Personally, I have over 17 billion gp on just one account and it just keeps adding up. It certainly doesn't cause inflation because I don't have anything to spend it on.

Weird flex but ok.

When the game is experiencing deflation, gold sinks should be removed, not injecting more gold. That's just solving the problem by creating more problems (or in this case, making the previous problem worse).
l||l Modest Skillers T7 Citadel | Skilling clan recruiting players. l||l
Cwar United for CW games/Ardy task/Trim req.
120 Summoning Familiar ideas.

19-Dec-2018 14:26:51

Quick find code: 366-367-639-65968139Back to Top