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TH Gem probabilities

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Ethereal199
Oct Gold Premier Club Member 2015

Ethereal199

Posts: 2,185Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
I'm not quite sure when these were added in, but if you access TH through the mobile app and try to modify which categories to freeze using Hearts of Ice, there is now a box labelled "View Probabilities".
___________________________________________

It says, "These percentages represent average drop rates and may vary according to individual promotions and your preference settings".

58.68% for white gems (~1 in 1.704)
24.56% for yellow gems (~1 in 4.072)
10.36% for orange gems (~1 in 9.653)
6.23% for red gems (~1 in 16.051)
0.15% for purple gems (~1 in 666.667)
___________________________________________

I guess this is in response to the App Store guidelines of "Apps offering “loot boxes” or other mechanisms that provide randomized virtual items for purchase must disclose the odds of receiving each type of item to customers prior to purchase", and to the recent Google Play guidelines of "Apps offering mechanisms to receive randomized virtual items from a purchase (i.e. "loot boxes";) must clearly disclose the odds of receiving those items in advance of purchase".

It might not be clear enough just to display the odds of each gem rarity, as many other apps also display how each prize within a rarity category is broken down (i.e. some apps have an ultra-rare rarity of between 1-5%, and also display the odds of obtaining a certain prize within that rarity). We shall see, how transparent Jagex needs to be in regards to the App Store and Google Play guidelines, when it hits the App Store in the future.
Hard -> 3a Range Top (#357), 3a Full Helm (#439), Barrows Dye (#1755, #2546)
Elite -> Shadow Dye (#510), Barrows Dye (#680, #1567), 3a Druidic Staff (#969), Sack of Effigies (#972), Ice Dye (#1539)
Master -> Barrows Dye (#480)

08-Aug-2019 08:31:38 - Last edited on 08-Aug-2019 08:40:03 by Ethereal199

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08-Aug-2019 13:20:18

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08-Aug-2019 13:26:32

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08-Aug-2019 13:40:45

Tuffty
Jan
fmod Member
2003

Tuffty

Forum Moderator Posts: 138,447Ruby Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Xavathos said:
It'll be interesting to see which way it goes indeed. Path of Exile started doing this a long time ago with their mystery boxes, clearly stating the odds of receiving rewards per box and even calculating their average value. Their boxes are probably about as ethical as something as blatantly unethical as mystery boxes can get.


Edited your comments to remove something I removed.
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08-Aug-2019 15:43:56

Dilbert2001
Jun Gold Premier Club Member 2006

Dilbert2001

Posts: 10,179Opal Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Different games may choose to disclose some additional information Google and Apple do not require. Some other games may have additional rareness such as Ultra-rare but it doesn't mean Jagex also must add an Ultra-rare to their rareness categories just a few games have that. Note that Google and Apple have no such requirements.

Likewise, Jagex also lists odds of their Clue Scrolls and Boss loot but it certainly doesn't mean all the other games also need to list odds of their Clue Scrolls and Boss loot equivalence neither. This is obviously so because Google and Apple do not require such information.

08-Aug-2019 16:30:04

Ethereal199
Oct Gold Premier Club Member 2015

Ethereal199

Posts: 2,185Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Dilbert2001 said:
Different games may choose to disclose some additional information Google and Apple do not require. Some other games may have additional rareness such as Ultra-rare but it doesn't mean Jagex also must add an Ultra-rare to their rareness categories just a few games have that. Note that Google and Apple have no such requirements.

Likewise, Jagex also lists odds of their Clue Scrolls and Boss loot but it certainly doesn't mean all the other games also need to list odds of their Clue Scrolls and Boss loot equivalence neither. This is obviously so because Google and Apple do not require such information.


You miss my point here. I use the term "ultra-rare" or "UR" as a general term (other mobile games refer to it as 5 star), to mean the top tier of rewards you can obtain from a loot box or a similar mechanism in other mobile games. For RS, "UR/5 star" is called the "purple gem" category (for most promos anyway), so Jagex has already defined such a prize category.

Besides the requirement of a membership to access clue scrolls and most bosses, these types of content does not require a player to purchase additional things like TH keys to participate in said content. Thus, Jagex making Clue Scrolls and Boss Drop rates publicly available is purely based on how transparent they want to be, not what Google and Apple says.

I'm sure you've noticed, that the Desktop version of RS doesn't feature any of the odds i've quoted, which means Jagex did this to try and meet the Google Play and App Store guidelines.

I don't actually hate the MTX in this game, as I think TH is an exciting aspect of RS3, but I originally made this thread to provide transparency on the TH gem probabilities, and I am generally curious how far Jagex will go in terms of transparency.
Hard -> 3a Range Top (#357), 3a Full Helm (#439), Barrows Dye (#1755, #2546)
Elite -> Shadow Dye (#510), Barrows Dye (#680, #1567), 3a Druidic Staff (#969), Sack of Effigies (#972), Ice Dye (#1539)
Master -> Barrows Dye (#480)

08-Aug-2019 17:06:07 - Last edited on 08-Aug-2019 17:09:52 by Ethereal199

Dilbert2001
Jun Gold Premier Club Member 2006

Dilbert2001

Posts: 10,179Opal Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
@OP, again, Google and Apple did not ask for what you mentioned or what other games show. In fact, they don't even ask for rarity of the prizes. They only asked for the ODDS.

And sorry to tell you Google and Apple refers to odds of all in-game purchases, not loot boxes and you should know OSRS has in-game purchases too as Jagex clearly showed it in their Google and iStore product descriptions. ;)

08-Aug-2019 17:50:50

Blackwing
Nov Member 2012

Blackwing

Posts: 40,739Sapphire Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Ethereal199 said:
It might not be clear enough just to display the odds of each gem rarity, as many other apps also display how each prize within a rarity category is broken down (i.e. some apps have an ultra-rare rarity of between 1-5%, and also display the odds of obtaining a certain prize within that rarity). We shall see, how transparent Jagex needs to be in regards to the App Store and Google Play guidelines, when it hits the App Store in the future.

Yeah, this really goes to show that Jagex truly doesn't care about the gameplay experience, but rather only about how much they can manipulate people into spending; they only do the bare minimum transparency, and only where it's mandated of them.

Still, it's nice to know that on average, even if you splurge on the highest key amount offer, you stand to win less than one purple prize from using said keys. A real non-legal definition of a gamble. Thanks for posting these.
"As for forktails, bait them thusly: pound a stake in the soil, bind a goat to it, then hide ye in nearto shrubbery posthaste."

09-Aug-2019 19:09:48

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