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Metamorphic Geodes

Quick find code: 437-438-395-66094368

Cambrian
Jul Member 2003

Cambrian

Posts: 1,121Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
I am mining Dark Animica with the target of getting Level 99 Mining.

I have now obtained 222 Igneous Geodes, while wearing a Ring of Wealth.

The base chance of a Metamorphic Geode is 1%, increased by 1% by the Ring of Wealth.

I have not obtained any Metamorphic Geodes.

While this is not impossible, the chance of it happening is slightly over 1% . To be exact, the probability should be 0.98^222. (0.0113 to three significant figures).

Have I misunderstood the Wiki concerning the chance of getting a Metamorphic Geode, or am I just unlucky?

08-Apr-2019 18:10:08

Ima Paq Rat
Jan Gold Premier Club Member 2018

Ima Paq Rat

Posts: 861Gold Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
I bank my Meta Geodes until I'm down to my last couple of hard to get Strange/Golden rocks.

Once, I had just completed both statues, I opened a couple Meta Geodes and got a Strange Rock Herby & Strange Rock Crafting. Those are very easy strange rocks that I get almost immediately through normal game play.

I was bummed when I realized I wasted my Meta Geodes for those easy strange rocks.

23-Apr-2019 17:08:18 - Last edited on 23-Apr-2019 17:08:56 by Ima Paq Rat

Ethereal199
Oct Gold Premier Club Member 2015

Ethereal199

Posts: 1,991Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Cambrian said:
I am mining Dark Animica with the target of getting Level 99 Mining.

I have now obtained 222 Igneous Geodes, while wearing a Ring of Wealth.

The base chance of a Metamorphic Geode is 1%, increased by 1% by the Ring of Wealth.

I have not obtained any Metamorphic Geodes.

While this is not impossible, the chance of it happening is slightly over 1% . To be exact, the probability should be 0.98^222. (0.0113 to three significant figures).

Have I misunderstood the Wiki concerning the chance of getting a Metamorphic Geode, or am I just unlucky?


It's just unlucky. There are times where I don't get a single metamorphic geode in an hour, while there were a few hours I got 2 of them and one hour I got 4 of them. It is a probability, that is only meaningful when you have a sufficiently large sample size. See the "law of large numbers", as this scenario can be regarded as a "binomial distribution" with two outcomes (you get an Igneous geode or a Metamorphic geode, but it's obviously biased towards Igneous geodes).
Hard -> 3a Range Top (#357), 3a Full Helm (#439), Barrows Dye (#1755)
Elite -> Shadow Dye (#510), Barrows Dye (#680, #1567), 3a Druidic Staff (#969), Sack of Effigies (#972), Ice Dye (#1539)
Master -> Barrows Dye (#480)

26-Apr-2019 14:30:47 - Last edited on 26-Apr-2019 14:33:20 by Ethereal199

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