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Nbodyproblem

Nbodyproblem

Posts: 3,872Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
@Tom, I would rather you attempt to prove me wrong rather than simply begging the question about my experience. If you have actual points maybe I could have something to respond to. I don't care if you say I'm lying about what I saw, because I know I'm not. I know what I experienced in 2008 about the phat hoard and buyout clans (stated many times in previous posts). Perhaps I made the mistake to say "Everyone" did this or whatever... but what I really meant was an overwhelming majority. We could argue semantics all day and lose the point but I'm not gonna play that game. This thread is about partyhats in 2020 which is by nature a subjective conversation. Everyone here is trying to "know" everything about a hypothetical situation in the future. Maybe you could share your thoughts on partyhats in 2020 and join the actual convo =)

31-Oct-2017 14:46:18 - Last edited on 31-Oct-2017 17:44:26 by Nbodyproblem

Tom Grey
Feb Member 2019

Tom Grey

Posts: 7,166Rune Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Nbodyproblem said:
@Tom, I would rather you attempt to prove me wrong rather than simply begging the question about my experience. If you have actual points maybe I could have something to respond to. I don't care if you say I'm lying about what I saw, because I know I'm not. I know what I experienced in 2008 about the phat hoard and buyout clans (stated many times in previous posts). Perhaps I made the mistake to say "Everyone" did this or whatever... but what I really meant was an overwhelming majority. We could argue semantics all day and lose the point but I'm not gonna play that game. This thread is about partyhats in 2020 which is by nature a subjective conversation. Everyone here is trying to "know" everything about a hypothetical situation in the future. Maybe you could share your thoughts on partyhats in 2020 and join the actual convo =)


Again, majority is based on what %?

The issue I have with your posts, is that they are one sided and clearly have an influencing agenda.

I don't speculate about the future, I use available information to understand the trend in the market. Some factors which you should consider in any further analysis is inflation, distribution of wealth, concentration of players, time to obtain, price fluctuations, investor profile, short - long term investment value. Essentially all parameters which you can actually calculate or derive. Concentrating on subjective factors such as number of rares in circulation / overall, investor mentality, rumours or intrinsic value to each player will not advance any position.

At the end of the day, I already made up my mind where rares are going to be in the next couple of years. But I'm tired of people advancing their views without any evidence, and stating it as fact.

31-Oct-2017 21:45:38 - Last edited on 31-Oct-2017 21:46:38 by Tom Grey

Nbodyproblem

Nbodyproblem

Posts: 3,872Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
@Tom,

I'm not sure the actual percentage but everyone participating in trades on w2 or forums was junk trading at some point. You really had no choice w/ balanced trade. The biggest junk you could quickly buy was a partyhat -5% in GE for the 5% profit. It is common knowledge. Why are you acting like this wasn't a thing people did? Like the fact I don't have a # makes it not true lol... did you even play back then? I'm curious what you recall happening.

What am I trying to influence?

If you don't speculate about the future WTF are you posting on a thread about speculating on the future?

How should I consider those factors? You can rattle off generic micro/macro econ terms all day but it doesn't explain your rationale and how that applies to the game market. Also how would you get any figures to derive calculations for all the parameters you quoted? You can't unless you hack JaGeX servers.... so we are at another impasse. You would be creating a thought experiment based on your model as well.

I'm glad you made up your mind. Perhaps you should share your mind instead of being defensive?

IMO you are just rambling general nonsense, stating that you know the facts... and not everyone else. Yet you aren't sharing any actual info with us... just that you disagree. Nice job lol. At least I actually posted what I think... whether or not it is right about what will happen in the future I don't care. But you can't twist people's words about their past experience like they have an "Agenda". My agenda is to get on here and have a casual conversation... which is failed miserably. As it always does in ID.

TA =)

31-Oct-2017 21:50:23 - Last edited on 31-Oct-2017 21:57:59 by Nbodyproblem

Nbodyproblem

Nbodyproblem

Posts: 3,872Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
@Tom, Since you mentioned econ stuff and I am really interested in it. I'll give this another shot.
Inflation
,
distribution of wealth
and
concentration of players
in a market is important.

IMO the most interesting phenomenon we are witnessing is a
small group of merchs trading between each other
to form the current partyhat market.
Many have noticed there are very few new investors in the partyhat market
. That means money stays in the community and isn't distributed except through GE flips. Most all new GP in the partyhat market is through an alt-army of GE flips and maybe some people kill AoD. This means the velocity of money could be quite high.

In economic systems that display a high velocity of money...
Inflation is common as prices are higher than they should be relative to the smaller pool of liquid GP being used for the transactions
. In an economic system w/ a lower velocity of money using the same GP pool... prices do not inflate as much.

This high velocity makes the market weak if anything major changes. Like max-cash being raised. This has the potential to dramatically increase supply, trading frequency and amount of investors involved. Since the current partyhat market has so few people and appears to have a high velocity of money as a result. It would be difficult to maintain the current prices if supply increased in any meaningful way. Or they could skyrocket since new investors could be mega-rich. Although that seems less likely since no other market appears to be as strong right now.

Eager to see your viewpoint.

01-Nov-2017 16:05:26 - Last edited on 01-Nov-2017 16:32:25 by Nbodyproblem

Finans
Feb Member 2019

Finans

Posts: 81Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Just to make something clear. Try to think logical for just 1 minute.

They know that, if they made partyhats untradeable, they would lose alot of players. The rare items in the game, is a huge part of why runescape is fun.

So. I ask again.
Why would they want to shot themself in the foot? If i were them, i would just fix the money limitation of 2147m cash. It wouldnt be an update that would take alot of effort, but it sure would be an update as big as their new graphic announcment.
- Life is strange, you wake up everyday. But not really.

07-Aug-2018 13:23:34

Rooh
Jan
fmod Member
2006

Rooh

Forum Moderator Posts: 31,724Sapphire Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Please don't gravebump old threads.

If you do a search for Party hats or Phats you should be able to find a more recent discussion to join in.
Teh nihgt is dark and ful of erorrs

07-Aug-2018 16:38:38

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